Author: Ivan Frolov
 Ivan Frolov
Director of the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute
RER: As we all know today there are not so many territorial disputes over the Arctic and the Antarctic. Many experts emphasize the growing importance of technological and economic aspects of polar lands exploration. What countries use most efficient and safe technologies and how does Russia fit into this picture?
I. F. The Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute does not deal with technologies
per se, but you have raised a very important point. Russian Arctic zone accounts for 50 percent of the territory and 60 percent of resources, but for no more than 2,5 percent of Russia?s population. Neither our country nor other countries possess technologies for efficient use of these resources. The Canadians and the Norwegians have certain experience in this area, the USA possess some skills. Russia is at the beginning of the process and has to use foreign experience.
At the same time our country takes a leading position in technologies for atomic fleet development. Our nuclear icebreakers are indispensable members of any more or less significant expedition to the Arctic, even when other foreign participants have their own nuclear vessels.
RER: Let us discuss another aspect of the topic — prospects for Russia?s development of the Lomonosov Ridge for exploration.
I. F. It is a serious matter. Natural resource extraction is absolutely necessary. For example, Norway has been producing oil from Arctic shelf for several decades. Of course, accidents happen, but they calculate their risks beforehand and try to minimize possible losses. Naturally, it requires development of certain technologies and appropriate financing. We can not stay aside from the process. Russian needs to produce oil. There is a clear conflict of interests: we have to preserve environment and, at the same time, to maintain comfortable standards of living. A compromise needs to be found but one thing is certain : in exploitation of any resources we need to combine time-tested techniques and modern technologies and to be prepared for elimination of possible accidents. Any activities associated with the operation of ships and use of mechanical equipment involve risks, the risks needs to be minimized.
RER: The Arctic and the Antarctic are a huge potential reservoir of fresh water. The UN experts predict that the wars of the 21st century will be fought over water. What are advantages and disadvantages of fresh water concentrated in the polar zone?
I. F. Yes, freshwater reserves in the Arctic are enormous; a large ice sheet is located near Greenland. At the same time there are no technologies for transportation of this water. Also, the effects of fresh water and sea water mixing remain largely unstudied. In the process of transportation of an iceberg to Africa the iceberg will be melting and we do not know how it may affect the environment of a region. Cataclysms cannot be ruled out. First, there would be changes in the heat balance, second — changes in the atmosphere-ocean interaction. In general, the idea of such transportation seems to be not sufficiently sound. I think mankind will act exactly like in the case of gas and oil, i.e. will start pumping it out, after all, there are such large reservoirs like the Baikal Lake.
Polar icebergs are a reserve to be used in future, when there will be developed appropriate technologies. Some time ago our institute was involved in developing projects for possible transportation of icebergs . Our experts came to the conclusion that it will be necessary to have very powerful boats and also to create a protective coating to prevent the ice from thawing en route. In general, conversion of salt water into fresh water seems to be a much easier process. Actually, desaltation facilities have been used in the Caspian Sea area for a long time. Of course, the quality of such water is far from being perfect, but the problem can be very simply solved by adding different mineral elements.
RER: What will happen to commercial fish stock? Some experts predict that global warming will change its migration patterns. This may trigger disputes over commercial fishing zones for different countries.
I. F. Yes, there are certain quotas set by international organizations for commercial fishing in fishing areas. There has been a lot of talk about dangerously low fish stocks in the Bering Sea. However, research shows that fish migration has happened in the past, there is natural cyclicity in the process. We believe there is no need to overdramatize the role of CO2 in global warming. So, there are no reasons to expect that man?s activity will have a significant impact on fish migration cycles.
RER: Do you regard the Arctic and the Antarctic as areas of active exploitation of oil or other resources in the immediate future?
I. F. At present exploitation of natural resources in the Antarctic is too expensive. It is a reserve for the future.
As to the Arctic its rich hydrocarbon resources have been intensively explored for a relatively long time. Production developments of oil has been in progress in Alaska for years Norway has been exploiting oil in the area and Russia is just beginning its drilling activities. Oil producing countries would drill further out into the sea if it proves to be expedient and strategically beneficial. Oil companies would continue to develop inexpensive-to-produce reserves. Only when existing oil wells run out they would shift to other places
RER: Are there any specific issues in Arctic and Antarctic exploration that would be beneficial for Russia not only in terms of economy?
I. F. Our institute studies climate and weather. The Arctic strongly influences the European climate and the weather in some of Russian regions. Climate and weather are extremely important for planning economic activities.
The institute has been exploring the Northern Sea Route since the 1920s; after almost 90 years of our work the route is completely open for commercial exploitation, only there is not much cargo to transport. The size of population in Russia?s Arctic zone is inadmissibly small. We need to develop the region, to create transport infrastructure and this requires knowledge of climate-related issues. Weather and climate studies have great economic impact on navigation in the Arctic, on cargo and passenger transportation.
RER: Does Russia have its own territorial sector in the Antarctic?
I. F. No one has. Under the provisions of the Antarctic Treaty that has been in force for over 50 years and has been extended for another 50 years there are no territorial sections in the Antarctic, although some countries like Chile and Argentina have claims over parts of the Antarctica. But as long as the treaty remains valid (for the period of over 40 years) the current Antarctic?s status can not be changed.
RER: And what about the territorial issue in the Arctic?
I. F. At present there is an international agreement to limit economic activity in the Artic to a 200 mile zone that follows national coastlines. However, the continental shelf can extend beyond the 200-mile zone. According to the international law the country must offer geological proof that its continental shelf extends beyond its 200 mile zone. But at the present time modern science fails to give the unambiguous answer.
The USA, Canada and Denmark as well as Russia have always been concerned with the problem of continental shelf limits. But not all of them have made definite statements on the issue. So far natural reserves contained in the 200-mile zone seem to be quite sufficient. However, natural resource exploration will be continued.
RER: So, you don?t expect the Arctic and the Antarctic to become a potential zone of interstate conflicts.
I.F. I don?t think it possible, as long as the UN convention that regulates the division of territory is observed. I doubt that existing territorial disputes between Russia and Norway and between Russia and the USA would escalate into full-scale conflicts. I don?t think there would be any threats to Russia?s sovereignty in our 200 mile zone., although there has been a lot of speculations in the foreign mass media about unfairness of having so much energy resources in a scarcely populated Sibera.
I think we will be working on exploration of the Antarctic all together, like the Americans and the Norwegians are working currently in the Arctic. It is also important to note that the area behind the 200 mile zone is covered with thick ice and so far there are no techniques for drilling deep beneath it. Building of specialized ships will take decades. An attempt to drill into ice beyond 400 meters failed, and I think techniques for drilling thick ice are unlikely to emerge in the next 20-30 years.
The Antarctic has been declared a demilitarized zone. In the Arctic the situation is different. Submarines are constantly patrolling waters of the Arctic Circle and dozens of satellites are monitoring the area. For Russia it is a matter of national security, after all, the Arctic coast accounts for almost 70 percent of Russia?s maritime border.
|
